A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
